Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Who will Oracle acquire next ?

If you see the acquisitions by Oracle in the last 5 years, they have done upto $10 billion dollar acquisitions every year. Last year was Sun Micro Systems at around $7.4 billion. What will Oracle acquire this year ? Here is my take.

Oracle will acquire VMWare ($1.8 billion revenue) or Citrix ($1.5 billion revenue). The chances are high that it will be VMWare.

Maybe I am trivializing acquisitions.

But I would also not be surprised if VMWare acquires PostgreSQL in the next 1 to 2 years, and Oracle acquiring VMWare after that for around $10 billion. I got that thought as Sun did the same favor for Oracle by acquiring MySQL.

Now, why VMWare ? Two reasons.

Oracle is trying to accelerate its capabilities in the IT Operations space
. VMWare is a very interesting company by suddenly being the champion facilitating data center consolidation. VMWare has also shown that they are interested in open source - Spring framework > Hyperic etc.

Hence VMWare incidentally acquiring PostgreSQL does not seem to be a bad idea. This way Postgres also comes to Oracle "accidentally". Remember they have acquired Siebel and PeopleSoft and J D Edwards (indirectly) too and PostgreSQL should be next. It now becomes more compelling and "convenient" for Oracle to acquire VMWare (and PostgreSQL).

For VMWare too this could make sense. It will help VMWare fight Microsoft and Citrix in the virtualization space better when its along with Oracle.

One more company that can challenge Windows Server Dominance ?
What if you can run specific applications directly on the Virtual machine ? What if the Sun's GuestVM becomes a reality ? Now that, it is with Oracle. Or if the Oracle BEA's LiquidVM for WebLogic goes real aggressive and makes it available for any Java Application ? (old news) This could allow the Java VM to run directly on the VMware hypervisor, without the need for an OS like Windows or Linux !

Now can this kind of direct deployment of Application Platforms hurt the Windows Server market itself ?

Well interesting game changing options ahead.


Update on Dec 10, 2010 : I think there are a few more signs that Oracle will try to acquire VMWare. Salesforce acquires Heroku. Just a few month back SalesForce and VMWare were cosing on VMForce. Now, here is another big acquisition in the PAAS space by SalesForce. Of course Oracle and Salesforce may not go well with each other.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Open Source Projects can complement your marketing

That's a complement to the market reach & power of popular Open Source projects. Confluence a SaaS enterprise wiki from Atlassian has reached 70% of enterprises ! IBATIS (open source Java/ .NET persistence framework), AppFuse etc and surely 100s of others use Confluence for their open source community documents(via their WIKI). The traffic that gets generated is probably one of the best brand building exercises for Confluence. 37signals built a cult like following for basecamp. Interestingly, however, no prizes for guessing who is behind the Ruby on Rails. Open source community can help your marketing efforts by getting the traffic to the SaaS service you provide. Its a win win if you give it fully free for these projects.